Will FOMO Dominate The Gold Market? This sets the stage for $3k Gold Price: Bloomberg Intelligence

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Bloomberg Intelligence: Will FOMO Dominate The Gold Market?

The Patriot Economic Insider

Will FOMO Dominate The Gold Market? This Sets The Stage For $3k Gold Price: Bloomberg Intelligence

Tuesday June 20, 2023

FOMO — the fear of missing out — could come to dominate the gold market as an economic slowdown in the second half of the year triggers a selloff in the stock market and a move towards $3,000 an ounce in gold, said Bloomberg Intelligence.

"Central-bank accumulation and the potential for a global economic slowdown, on the back of the most aggressive rate-hike period ever, may set the stage for gold to move toward $3,000 an ounce," said Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone said in a report Tuesday.

One primary driver keeping the Federal Reserve hawkish is a strong stock market. This is what has been keeping gold from rallying, with U.S. Treasuries yielding about 5% and the S&P 500 up around 15% in 2023. But this performance will not last, according to McGlone.

"Bloomberg Economics' outlook for an ugly 2H may tilt the potential for a gold bull market toward a key catalyst — a stock bear market," he said. "If the 1H rising equity tide is sustained, the Fed is more likely to keep rates elevated. It's the potential for reciprocity to the biggest liquidity pump in history that's now dumping, and may draw parallels to 1929-30, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell about 50% and bounced about 50% before the Great Depression."

A big gold price supporter has been central bank gold buying, which has offset gold ETF outflows. And once the stock market begins to see significant losses, nothing will be holding gold back.

"Gold ETF holdings falling about 10% year over year to June 16 vs. the price rising around the same amount may suggest the metal is too hot, or has divergent strength," McGlone pointed out. "Our bias is the latter, as gold appears to be waiting on a Federal Reserve pivot and is being bought by some of the world's deepest pockets -- central banks."

McGlone added that the gains in the stock market are likely to be short-lived due to the coming deflationary recession. And this is good news for gold bulls who want to see gold trading sustainably above $2,000 an ounce.

"The metal's per-ounce price at about half the level of the S&P 500 in 2Q could be an advantage, particularly if the U.S. economy contracts," McGlone said. "The history of booms that go bust when excessive liquidity is removed might set the stage for gold to sustain above its $2,000 resistance."

*Information contained within this email should not be construed as Legal, Accounting, Tax or Investment advice Planners and do NOT give investing or tax advice.

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Gold Bulls Should Focus On Long-Term Protection, Not Short-Term Opportunity Costs - State Street's George Milling Stanley

Thursday June 22, 2023

There is still a serious possibility of falling into a recession in this country, and that, in turn, might prompt a global recession. That is probably something gold buyers should be thinking about much more."

He noted that only in October gold prices were testing long-term support at $1,680 an ounce. Despite its recent correction, gold prices are up 14.5% from the 2022 lows.

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said that if the gold market can continue to hold critical support at around $1,900 an ounce, there is a good chance prices can end the year higher.

Instead of looking at short-term opportunity costs of holding gold in a rising interest rate environment, Milling-Stanley said that investors should look at how gold can provide long-term protection and enhanced risk-adjusted returns.

"The fact that we have sticky persistent inflation and we have had it for some time now, well above the Fed's target, I think is probably more important than just looking at what the Fed does from meeting to meeting. There is still a serious possibility of falling into a recession in this country, and that, in turn, might prompt a global recession. That is probably something gold buyers should be thinking about much more."

"I have been saying for a while that equity markets have more to fear from a hawkish Fed and rising interest rates than gold," he said.

He noted that only in October gold prices were testing long-term support at $1,680 an ounce. Despite its recent correction, gold prices are up 14.5% from the 2022 lows.

"Last year, we were talking about very, very solid price support in the area between $1,600 to $1,650. So far this year, given that we have not dropped below $1,900, I'm wondering where the support is now. Has the support, in fact, moved up in just 12 months from the $1,600 area to the $1900 area? Has the support area moved up a whole $300," he said.

Adding to the support in the gold market is the fact that central banks continue to buy gold at a record pace. Milling-Stanley said that he expects central banks to continue to buy gold for the foreseeable future.

"Emerging markets central banks have been behind the vast majority of the buying over the past 13 years because, on average, they have more than two-thirds of their reserves in dollar debt and less than 5% of their reserves in gold," he said. "That is an imbalance they regard as dangerous and an imbalance they're doing their best to address."

As for investment demand, Milling-Stanley said that he expects this segment of the market to pick up as investors take advantage of lower prices.

*Information contained within this email should not be construed as Legal, Accounting, Tax or Investment adviceial Planners and do NOT give investing or tax advice.

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Jack Hanney is the CEO & Co-Founder of Patriot Gold Group, and a nationally sought after financial speaker and guest. Recently featured on Fox Los Angeles "Good Day LA", he was interviewed on his insights on the global health crisis and its impact on the economy, and he accurately predicted the catastrophic 17% pullback we saw last week. His interview can be viewed here: Fox Interview

Learn Why Smart Money is Moving to Precious Metals in 2023.

WSJ MarketWatch: U.S. Stocks Head For Punishing Selloff As 'Unknown Unknowns' Could Drag Market Lower, JPMorgan Analysts Warn


Mon, June 22, 2023

The higher the U.S. stock market climbs, the more apocalyptic JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s U.S. equity research team becomes, it seems.

After standing by their bearish view on the market all year, a team led by JPM Chief Global Markets Strategist Marko Kolanovic is warning clients that U.S. stocks could be headed for selloff due to some murky, unseen catalyst, according to a research note shared with MarketWatch on Thursday.

With the beginning of the second half of 2023 approaching, "…the risk of another unknown unknown resurfacing appears high," the team said.

"Unknown unknowns" is a phrase used by former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in a 2002 news briefing, where he said: "There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know."

Simply put, investors might soon wake up to the realization that equity valuations are too elevated once the economy starts to slow. JPM expects the long-anticipated recession could begin during the fourth quarter, or first quarter of 2024.

*Information contained within this email should not be construed as Legal, Accounting, Tax or Investment advice. Patriot Gold Group is Gold & Silver Dealer, representatives are NOT Licensed Financial Planners and do NOT give investing or tax advice.

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Morgan Stanley Says Stock Bulls Face Rude Awakening

Tue, June 20, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street's most bearish strategists isn't giving in to the bullish about-turn in equities, saying investors may be in for "a rude awakening."

Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, whose outlook for a market slump in 2023 has yet to materialize, said fading fiscal support, lower liquidity and falling inflation will weigh on the US equity rally in the second half of the year.

He's also concerned that stocks are "as stretched as they can get" in a narrow performance that's been driven by excess liquidity from March's banking deposit bailouts.

"Given our fundamental view on growth, we find it hard to get on board with the current excitement," Wilson wrote in a note Tuesday. "If second half growth re-accelerates as expected, then the bullish narrative being used to support equity prices will be proven correct. If not, many investors may be in for a rude awakening given the very big reach for risk we are seeing."

Morgan Stanley expects slowing inflation to have a direct negative impact on companies' revenue growth that's not reflected in consensus forecasts.

According to Wilson, last week's lower-than-expected producer prices release portends a sharp drop in revenue growth over the next four months. That "would imply that our well below earnings forecast is correct as the negative operating leverage does the heavy lifting."

*Information contained within this press release should not be construed as Legal, Accounting, Tax or Investment advice. Patriot Gold Group is Gold & Silver Dealer, representatives are NOT Licensed Financial Planners and do NOT give investing or tax advice.

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PGG is not providing investment, legal or tax advice. The reports provided are for general information purposes only. Please consult a qualified tax professional for strategies. "All investments carry some degree of risk. Stocks, bonds, [precious metals, crypto currencies], mutual funds and exchange-traded funds can lose value if market conditions sour. Even conservative, insured investments, such as certificates of deposit (CDs) issued by a bank or credit union, come with inflation risk. That is, they may not earn enough over time to keep pace with the increasing cost of living." (FINRA 11/2022)
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